Saturday 10 October · 15:00 · 6th matchday
Benevento – Cesena
Benevento
9th · attack 0.99 · defence 0.96
Cesena
7th · attack 0.96 · defence 1.15
Our model makes Benevento favourites for Benevento – Cesena, at 52%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, Benevento win 52% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Cesena win 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.57 goals for Benevento and 0.92 for Cesena, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time and both teams scoring 48%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.57 for Benevento, 0.92 for Cesena.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Benevento wins; above it, Cesena wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Benevento goals in rows, Cesena goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Benevento v Cesena?
Benevento, at 52%. The full split is Benevento 52%, draw 27%, Cesena 21%.
What is the most likely score in Benevento v Cesena?
1–1, which comes up in 12.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Benevento v Cesena?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 72% of the time. Expected goals are 1.57 for Benevento and 0.92 for Cesena.
Will both teams score in Benevento v Cesena?
Both teams score in 48% of simulations. Benevento keep a clean sheet or Cesena fail to score in the remaining 52%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.