Sunday 11 October · 17:15 · 6th matchday
Calcio Padova – Carrarese
Calcio Padova
11th · attack 0.90 · defence 1.01
Carrarese
20th · attack 0.83 · defence 1.05
Our model makes Calcio Padova favourites for Calcio Padova – Carrarese, at 47%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 17:15.
Across the full score distribution, Calcio Padova win 47% of the time, the draw comes up 30% and Carrarese win 23%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 14.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.32 goals for Calcio Padova and 0.84 for Carrarese, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 37% of the time and both teams scoring 42%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.32 for Calcio Padova, 0.84 for Carrarese.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Calcio Padova wins; above it, Carrarese wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 14 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Calcio Padova goals in rows, Carrarese goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Calcio Padova v Carrarese?
Calcio Padova, at 47%. The full split is Calcio Padova 47%, draw 30%, Carrarese 23%.
What is the most likely score in Calcio Padova v Carrarese?
1–0, which comes up in 14.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Calcio Padova v Carrarese?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 37% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 64% of the time. Expected goals are 1.32 for Calcio Padova and 0.84 for Carrarese.
Will both teams score in Calcio Padova v Carrarese?
Both teams score in 42% of simulations. Calcio Padova keep a clean sheet or Carrarese fail to score in the remaining 58%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.