Sunday 11 October · 15:00 · 6th matchday
Catanzaro – Mantova
Catanzaro
19th · attack 1.17 · defence 1.12
Mantova
3rd · attack 1.12 · defence 1.10
Our model makes Catanzaro favourites for Catanzaro – Mantova, at 49%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, Catanzaro win 49% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Mantova win 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.78 goals for Catanzaro and 1.26 for Mantova, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.78 for Catanzaro, 1.26 for Mantova.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Catanzaro wins; above it, Mantova wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Catanzaro goals in rows, Mantova goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Catanzaro v Mantova?
Catanzaro, at 49%. The full split is Catanzaro 49%, draw 24%, Mantova 26%.
What is the most likely score in Catanzaro v Mantova?
1–1, which comes up in 11.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Catanzaro v Mantova?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 81% of the time. Expected goals are 1.78 for Catanzaro and 1.26 for Mantova.
Will both teams score in Catanzaro v Mantova?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Catanzaro keep a clean sheet or Mantova fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.