Saturday 10 October · 15:00 · 6th matchday
Empoli – Palermo
Empoli
12th · attack 0.90 · defence 1.06
Palermo
1st · attack 1.21 · defence 0.92
Our model makes Palermo favourites for Empoli – Palermo, at 39%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, Empoli win 32% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and Palermo win 39%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.14 goals for Empoli and 1.27 for Palermo, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 43% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.14 for Empoli, 1.27 for Palermo.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Empoli wins; above it, Palermo wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Empoli goals in rows, Palermo goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Empoli v Palermo?
Palermo, at 39%. The full split is Empoli 32%, draw 29%, Palermo 39%.
What is the most likely score in Empoli v Palermo?
1–1, which comes up in 13.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Empoli v Palermo?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 43% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 70% of the time. Expected goals are 1.14 for Empoli and 1.27 for Palermo.
Will both teams score in Empoli v Palermo?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Empoli keep a clean sheet or Palermo fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.