Friday 16 October · 20:30 · 7th matchday
Hellas Verona – Catanzaro
Hellas Verona
6th · attack 1.16 · defence 1.09
Catanzaro
19th · attack 1.17 · defence 1.12
Our model makes Hellas Verona favourites for Hellas Verona – Catanzaro, at 49%. Kick-off 16 October 2026, 20:30.
Across the full score distribution, Hellas Verona win 49% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Catanzaro win 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.80 goals for Hellas Verona and 1.27 for Catanzaro, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time and both teams scoring 61%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.80 for Hellas Verona, 1.27 for Catanzaro.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Hellas Verona wins; above it, Catanzaro wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Hellas Verona goals in rows, Catanzaro goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Hellas Verona v Catanzaro?
Hellas Verona, at 49%. The full split is Hellas Verona 49%, draw 24%, Catanzaro 26%.
What is the most likely score in Hellas Verona v Catanzaro?
1–1, which comes up in 11.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Hellas Verona v Catanzaro?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 1.80 for Hellas Verona and 1.27 for Catanzaro.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona v Catanzaro?
Both teams score in 61% of simulations. Hellas Verona keep a clean sheet or Catanzaro fail to score in the remaining 39%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.