Sunday 11 October · 19:30 · 6th matchday
Modena – Hellas Verona
Modena
4th · attack 1.02 · defence 0.91
Hellas Verona
6th · attack 1.16 · defence 1.09
Our model makes Modena favourites for Modena – Hellas Verona, at 48%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 19:30.
Across the full score distribution, Modena win 48% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Hellas Verona win 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.54 goals for Modena and 1.05 for Hellas Verona, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time and both teams scoring 52%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.54 for Modena, 1.05 for Hellas Verona.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Modena wins; above it, Hellas Verona wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Modena goals in rows, Hellas Verona goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Modena v Hellas Verona?
Modena, at 48%. The full split is Modena 48%, draw 27%, Hellas Verona 25%.
What is the most likely score in Modena v Hellas Verona?
1–1, which comes up in 12.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Modena v Hellas Verona?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 74% of the time. Expected goals are 1.54 for Modena and 1.05 for Hellas Verona.
Will both teams score in Modena v Hellas Verona?
Both teams score in 52% of simulations. Modena keep a clean sheet or Hellas Verona fail to score in the remaining 48%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.