Saturday 10 October · 15:00 · 6th matchday
Südtirol – Ascoli
Südtirol
2nd · attack 0.95 · defence 0.95
Ascoli
5th · attack 1.02 · defence 0.92
Our model makes Südtirol favourites for Südtirol – Ascoli, at 41%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, Südtirol win 41% of the time, the draw comes up 30% and Ascoli win 29%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 14.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.22 goals for Südtirol and 0.97 for Ascoli, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 37% of the time and both teams scoring 44%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.22 for Südtirol, 0.97 for Ascoli.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Südtirol wins; above it, Ascoli wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Südtirol goals in rows, Ascoli goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Südtirol v Ascoli?
Südtirol, at 41%. The full split is Südtirol 41%, draw 30%, Ascoli 29%.
What is the most likely score in Südtirol v Ascoli?
1–1, which comes up in 14.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Südtirol v Ascoli?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 37% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 65% of the time. Expected goals are 1.22 for Südtirol and 0.97 for Ascoli.
Will both teams score in Südtirol v Ascoli?
Both teams score in 44% of simulations. Südtirol keep a clean sheet or Ascoli fail to score in the remaining 56%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.