Saturday 10 October · 17:15 · 6th matchday
Vicenza – Pisa
Vicenza
16th · attack 1.03 · defence 1.22
Pisa
10th · attack 1.10 · defence 1.12
Our model makes Vicenza favourites for Vicenza – Pisa, at 43%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 17:15.
Across the full score distribution, Vicenza win 43% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Pisa win 31%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.61 goals for Vicenza and 1.34 for Pisa, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.61 for Vicenza, 1.34 for Pisa.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Vicenza wins; above it, Pisa wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Vicenza goals in rows, Pisa goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Vicenza v Pisa?
Vicenza, at 43%. The full split is Vicenza 43%, draw 26%, Pisa 31%.
What is the most likely score in Vicenza v Pisa?
1–1, which comes up in 12.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Vicenza v Pisa?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.61 for Vicenza and 1.34 for Pisa.
Will both teams score in Vicenza v Pisa?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Vicenza keep a clean sheet or Pisa fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.