Saturday 10 October · 15:00 · 6th matchday
Virtus Entella – Juve Stabia
Virtus Entella
14th · attack 0.93 · defence 1.03
Juve Stabia
17th · attack 0.92 · defence 1.01
Our model makes Virtus Entella favourites for Virtus Entella – Juve Stabia, at 44%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, Virtus Entella win 44% of the time, the draw comes up 30% and Juve Stabia win 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.30 goals for Virtus Entella and 0.94 for Juve Stabia, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 39% of the time and both teams scoring 45%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.30 for Virtus Entella, 0.94 for Juve Stabia.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Virtus Entella wins; above it, Juve Stabia wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 14 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Virtus Entella goals in rows, Juve Stabia goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Virtus Entella v Juve Stabia?
Virtus Entella, at 44%. The full split is Virtus Entella 44%, draw 30%, Juve Stabia 26%.
What is the most likely score in Virtus Entella v Juve Stabia?
1–1, which comes up in 13.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Virtus Entella v Juve Stabia?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 39% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 66% of the time. Expected goals are 1.30 for Virtus Entella and 0.94 for Juve Stabia.
Will both teams score in Virtus Entella v Juve Stabia?
Both teams score in 45% of simulations. Virtus Entella keep a clean sheet or Juve Stabia fail to score in the remaining 55%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.