Süper Lig
Team strengths: publishedSeason projection: publishedMatch probabilities: publishedComputed on 27 September 2026
Table and projections
Computed on
27 September 2026
| Team | P | Pts | Diff | Title | UCL | Projected points | Relegation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Amed SKpromoted | 6 | 13 | +8 | 26% | 42% | 62.9 | 1% |
| 2 |  Galatasaray | 6 | 13 | +3 | 22% | 44% | 64.8 | 0% |
| 3 |  Beşiktaş | 6 | 12 | +7 | 9% | 24% | 60.7 | 0% |
| 4 |  Kocaelispor | 6 | 12 | +3 | 0% | 1% | 48.3 | 2% |
| 5 |  Alanyaspor | 6 | 11 | +2 | 1% | 2% | 50.7 | 1% |
| 6 |  Fenerbahçe | 6 | 10 | +10 | 28% | 48% | 64.9 | 0% |
| 7 |  Trabzonspor | 6 | 10 | +8 | 12% | 28% | 61.2 | 0% |
| 8 |  Kasımpaşa | 6 | 10 | +2 | 0% | 1% | 46.4 | 3% |
| 9 |  Rizespor | 6 | 10 | +1 | 0% | 0% | 45.2 | 4% |
| 10 |  Gaziantep F.K. | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 40.4 | 16% |
| 11 |  Çorum FKpromoted | 6 | 7 | +1 | 2% | 5% | 46.3 | 14% |
| 12 |  İstanbul Başakşehir | 6 | 7 | -1 | 1% | 4% | 51.7 | 1% |
| 13 |  Gençlerbirliği | 6 | 7 | -8 | 0% | 0% | 36.2 | 34% |
| 14 |  Erzurumspor FKpromoted | 6 | 7 | -8 | 0% | 0% | 28.8 | 70% |
| 15 |  Konyaspor | 6 | 4 | -4 | 0% | 0% | 37.4 | 23% |
| 16 |  Samsunspor | 6 | 4 | -6 | 0% | 0% | 36.6 | 31% |
| 17 |  Göztepe | 6 | 3 | -4 | 0% | 0% | 37.5 | 25% |
| 18 |  Eyüpspor | 6 | 3 | -14 | 0% | 0% | 27.7 | 74% |
50,000 simulated seasons from a Dixon-Coles model fitted on 2,367 matches, weighted so that recent ones count more.
Where each team finishes
The probability of finishing in each position, across the 50,000 simulated seasons. A tight row is a team whose fate is nearly settled; a spread-out row, a team for whom anything is still possible.
123456789101112131415161718Fenerbahçe2820161396Galatasaray22221814106Amed SK26151210975Trabzonspor121717161396Beşiktaş915181714107İstanbul Başakşehir58111413111086Alanyaspor61012141311975Kocaelispor6912131211975Kasımpaşa71012121211975Çorum FK556777777765555Rizespor681011121210965Gaziantep F.K.579101111111085Göztepe56810121313129Konyaspor6911131414128Samsunspor57910121313126Gençlerbirliği56810121314128Erzurumspor FK5710142233Eyüpspor69132238
Fenerbahçe2820161396Galatasaray22221814106Amed SK26151210975Trabzonspor121717161396Beşiktaş915181714107İstanbul Başakşehir58111413111086Alanyaspor61012141311975Kocaelispor6912131211975Kasımpaşa71012121211975Çorum FK556777777765555Rizespor681011121210965Gaziantep F.K.579101111111085Göztepe56810121313129Konyaspor6911131414128Samsunspor57910121313126Gençlerbirliği56810121314128Erzurumspor FK5710142233Eyüpspor69132238The darker the cell, the likelier the position. Teams are ordered by average expected position, not by current standing.
Where each team is heading
Average expected position at each matchday. Left of the marker, what actually happened; right of it, the projection.
Galatasaray3.0eFenerbahçe3.1eAmed SK2.9e