Allsvenskan
Team strengths: publishedSeason projection: publishedMatch probabilities: publishedComputed on 27 September 2026
Table and projections
Computed on
27 September 2026
| Team | P | Pts | Diff | Title | UCL | Projected points | Relegation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sirius | 22 | 51 | +24 | 76% | 76% | 63.3 | 0% |
| 2 |  Hammarby | 22 | 43 | +29 | 16% | 16% | 58.0 | 0% |
| 3 |  Djurgården | 22 | 41 | +26 | 8% | 8% | 56.1 | 0% |
| 4 |  Elfsborg | 22 | 37 | +9 | 0% | 0% | 48.5 | 0% |
| 5 |  Häcken | 22 | 36 | +9 | 0% | 0% | 48.2 | 0% |
| 6 |  Västerås SKpromoted | 22 | 35 | -1 | 0% | 0% | 46.4 | 0% |
| 7 |  Malmö FF | 22 | 33 | +4 | 0% | 0% | 46.6 | 0% |
| 8 |  AIK | 22 | 33 | -3 | 0% | 0% | 45.1 | 0% |
| 9 |  IFK Göteborg | 22 | 32 | -10 | 0% | 0% | 40.3 | 0% |
| 10 |  GAIS | 22 | 30 | +8 | 0% | 0% | 43.8 | 0% |
| 11 |  Brommapojkarna | 22 | 27 | -6 | 0% | 0% | 36.5 | 0% |
| 12 |  Mjällby | 22 | 22 | -11 | 0% | 0% | 35.3 | 0% |
| 13 |  Kalmarpromoted | 22 | 19 | -15 | 0% | 0% | 27.6 | 12% |
| 14 |  Degerfors | 22 | 19 | -15 | 0% | 0% | 26.6 | 17% |
| 15 |  Örgrytepromoted | 22 | 15 | -24 | 0% | 0% | 22.0 | 77% |
| 16 |  Halmstad | 22 | 14 | -24 | 0% | 0% | 19.5 | 95% |
50,000 simulated seasons from a Dixon-Coles model fitted on 1,756 matches, weighted so that recent ones count more.
Where each team finishes
The probability of finishing in each position, across the 50,000 simulated seasons. A tight row is a team whose fate is nearly settled; a spread-out row, a team for whom anything is still possible.
12345678910111213141516Sirius76195Hammarby1648295Djurgården831489Elfsborg62521171396Häcken624211713106Malmö FF151718171510Västerås SK1015171816136AIK711141719199GAIS5912151921125IFK Göteborg581633249Brommapojkarna61833345Mjällby1429428Kalmar8453410Degerfors344315Örgryte7164730Halmstad52866
Sirius76195Hammarby1648295Djurgården831489Elfsborg62521171396Häcken624211713106Malmö FF151718171510Västerås SK1015171816136AIK711141719199GAIS5912151921125IFK Göteborg581633249Brommapojkarna61833345Mjällby1429428Kalmar8453410Degerfors344315Örgryte7164730Halmstad52866The darker the cell, the likelier the position. Teams are ordered by average expected position, not by current standing.
Where each team is heading
Average expected position at each matchday. Left of the marker, what actually happened; right of it, the projection.
Djurgården2.7eHammarby2.3eSirius1.3e