Tuesday 13 October · 21:00 · 10th matchday
Birmingham City – Preston North End
Birmingham City
11th · attack 0.99 · defence 1.06
Preston North End
23rd · attack 0.90 · defence 1.25
Our model makes Birmingham City favourites for Birmingham City – Preston North End, at 51%. Kick-off 13 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Birmingham City win 51% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Preston North End win 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.58 goals for Birmingham City and 0.95 for Preston North End, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.58 for Birmingham City, 0.95 for Preston North End.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Birmingham City wins; above it, Preston North End wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Birmingham City goals in rows, Preston North End goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Birmingham City v Preston North End?
Birmingham City, at 51%. The full split is Birmingham City 51%, draw 27%, Preston North End 22%.
What is the most likely score in Birmingham City v Preston North End?
1–1, which comes up in 12.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Birmingham City v Preston North End?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 73% of the time. Expected goals are 1.58 for Birmingham City and 0.95 for Preston North End.
Will both teams score in Birmingham City v Preston North End?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Birmingham City keep a clean sheet or Preston North End fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.