Saturday 10 October · 16:00 · 9th matchday
Blackburn Rovers – Cardiff City
Blackburn Rovers
16th · attack 0.88 · defence 1.06
Cardiff City
21st · attack 0.90 · defence 1.26
Our model makes Blackburn Rovers favourites for Blackburn Rovers – Cardiff City, at 47%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Blackburn Rovers win 47% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and Cardiff City win 24%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.42 goals for Blackburn Rovers and 0.95 for Cardiff City, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 42% of the time and both teams scoring 48%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.42 for Blackburn Rovers, 0.95 for Cardiff City.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Blackburn Rovers wins; above it, Cardiff City wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 14 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Blackburn Rovers goals in rows, Cardiff City goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Blackburn Rovers v Cardiff City?
Blackburn Rovers, at 47%. The full split is Blackburn Rovers 47%, draw 29%, Cardiff City 24%.
What is the most likely score in Blackburn Rovers v Cardiff City?
1–1, which comes up in 13.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Blackburn Rovers v Cardiff City?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 42% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 69% of the time. Expected goals are 1.42 for Blackburn Rovers and 0.95 for Cardiff City.
Will both teams score in Blackburn Rovers v Cardiff City?
Both teams score in 48% of simulations. Blackburn Rovers keep a clean sheet or Cardiff City fail to score in the remaining 52%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.