Saturday 10 October · 16:00 · 9th matchday
Bolton Wanderers – Stoke City
Bolton Wanderers
15th · attack 1.02 · defence 1.30
Stoke City
8th · attack 0.93 · defence 1.13
Our model makes Bolton Wanderers favourites for Bolton Wanderers – Stoke City, at 43%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Bolton Wanderers win 43% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Stoke City win 30%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.48 goals for Bolton Wanderers and 1.20 for Stoke City, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time and both teams scoring 55%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.48 for Bolton Wanderers, 1.20 for Stoke City.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Bolton Wanderers wins; above it, Stoke City wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Bolton Wanderers goals in rows, Stoke City goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Bolton Wanderers v Stoke City?
Bolton Wanderers, at 43%. The full split is Bolton Wanderers 43%, draw 27%, Stoke City 30%.
What is the most likely score in Bolton Wanderers v Stoke City?
1–1, which comes up in 13.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bolton Wanderers v Stoke City?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 1.48 for Bolton Wanderers and 1.20 for Stoke City.
Will both teams score in Bolton Wanderers v Stoke City?
Both teams score in 55% of simulations. Bolton Wanderers keep a clean sheet or Stoke City fail to score in the remaining 45%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.