Tuesday 13 October · 20:45 · 10th matchday
Bristol City – Blackburn Rovers
Bristol City
9th · attack 0.99 · defence 1.13
Blackburn Rovers
16th · attack 0.88 · defence 1.06
Our model makes Bristol City favourites for Bristol City – Blackburn Rovers, at 44%. Kick-off 13 October 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Bristol City win 44% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and Blackburn Rovers win 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.34 goals for Bristol City and 0.99 for Blackburn Rovers, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 41% of the time and both teams scoring 47%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.34 for Bristol City, 0.99 for Blackburn Rovers.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Bristol City wins; above it, Blackburn Rovers wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Bristol City goals in rows, Blackburn Rovers goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Bristol City v Blackburn Rovers?
Bristol City, at 44%. The full split is Bristol City 44%, draw 29%, Blackburn Rovers 27%.
What is the most likely score in Bristol City v Blackburn Rovers?
1–1, which comes up in 13.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bristol City v Blackburn Rovers?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 41% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 68% of the time. Expected goals are 1.34 for Bristol City and 0.99 for Blackburn Rovers.
Will both teams score in Bristol City v Blackburn Rovers?
Both teams score in 47% of simulations. Bristol City keep a clean sheet or Blackburn Rovers fail to score in the remaining 53%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.