Tuesday 13 October · 20:45 · 10th matchday
Burnley – Charlton Athletic
Burnley
24th · attack 1.04 · defence 1.02
Charlton Athletic
10th · attack 0.78 · defence 1.08
Our model makes Burnley favourites for Burnley – Charlton Athletic, at 52%. Kick-off 13 October 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Burnley win 52% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and Charlton Athletic win 20%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 14.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.45 goals for Burnley and 0.80 for Charlton Athletic, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 39% of the time and both teams scoring 43%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.45 for Burnley, 0.80 for Charlton Athletic.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Burnley wins; above it, Charlton Athletic wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Burnley goals in rows, Charlton Athletic goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Burnley v Charlton Athletic?
Burnley, at 52%. The full split is Burnley 52%, draw 29%, Charlton Athletic 20%.
What is the most likely score in Burnley v Charlton Athletic?
1–0, which comes up in 14.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Burnley v Charlton Athletic?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 39% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 66% of the time. Expected goals are 1.45 for Burnley and 0.80 for Charlton Athletic.
Will both teams score in Burnley v Charlton Athletic?
Both teams score in 43% of simulations. Burnley keep a clean sheet or Charlton Athletic fail to score in the remaining 57%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.