Friday 16 October · 21:00 · 11th matchday
Burnley – Wolverhampton Wanderers
Burnley
24th · attack 1.04 · defence 1.02
Wolverhampton Wanderers
5th · attack 1.36 · defence 1.08
Our model makes Burnley favourites for Burnley – Wolverhampton Wanderers, at 38% — but only 2.4% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 16 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Burnley win 38% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Wolverhampton Wanderers win 35%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.44 goals for Burnley and 1.39 for Wolverhampton Wanderers, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time and both teams scoring 58%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.44 for Burnley, 1.39 for Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Burnley wins; above it, Wolverhampton Wanderers wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Burnley goals in rows, Wolverhampton Wanderers goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Burnley v Wolverhampton Wanderers?
Burnley, at 38%. The full split is Burnley 38%, draw 27%, Wolverhampton Wanderers 35%.
What is the most likely score in Burnley v Wolverhampton Wanderers?
1–1, which comes up in 12.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Burnley v Wolverhampton Wanderers?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.44 for Burnley and 1.39 for Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Will both teams score in Burnley v Wolverhampton Wanderers?
Both teams score in 58% of simulations. Burnley keep a clean sheet or Wolverhampton Wanderers fail to score in the remaining 42%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.