Tuesday 13 October · 20:45 · 10th matchday
Cardiff City – Watford
Cardiff City
21st · attack 0.90 · defence 1.26
Watford
20th · attack 0.86 · defence 1.16
Our model makes Cardiff City favourites for Cardiff City – Watford, at 42%. Kick-off 13 October 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Cardiff City win 42% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and Watford win 29%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.34 goals for Cardiff City and 1.08 for Watford, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 44% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.34 for Cardiff City, 1.08 for Watford.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Cardiff City wins; above it, Watford wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Cardiff City goals in rows, Watford goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Cardiff City v Watford?
Cardiff City, at 42%. The full split is Cardiff City 42%, draw 29%, Watford 29%.
What is the most likely score in Cardiff City v Watford?
1–1, which comes up in 13.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Cardiff City v Watford?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 44% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 71% of the time. Expected goals are 1.34 for Cardiff City and 1.08 for Watford.
Will both teams score in Cardiff City v Watford?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Cardiff City keep a clean sheet or Watford fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.