Saturday 10 October · 13:30 · 9th matchday
Charlton Athletic – Bristol City
Charlton Athletic
10th · attack 0.78 · defence 1.08
Bristol City
9th · attack 0.99 · defence 1.13
Our model makes Charlton Athletic favourites for Charlton Athletic – Bristol City, at 36% — but only 3.2% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 13:30.
Across the full score distribution, Charlton Athletic win 36% of the time, the draw comes up 31% and Bristol City win 33%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 14.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.13 goals for Charlton Athletic and 1.06 for Bristol City, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 38% of the time and both teams scoring 45%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.13 for Charlton Athletic, 1.06 for Bristol City.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Charlton Athletic wins; above it, Bristol City wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Charlton Athletic goals in rows, Bristol City goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Charlton Athletic v Bristol City?
Charlton Athletic, at 36%. The full split is Charlton Athletic 36%, draw 31%, Bristol City 33%.
What is the most likely score in Charlton Athletic v Bristol City?
1–1, which comes up in 14.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Charlton Athletic v Bristol City?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 38% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 65% of the time. Expected goals are 1.13 for Charlton Athletic and 1.06 for Bristol City.
Will both teams score in Charlton Athletic v Bristol City?
Both teams score in 45% of simulations. Charlton Athletic keep a clean sheet or Bristol City fail to score in the remaining 55%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.