Saturday 10 October · 16:00 · 9th matchday
Derby County – Wrexham
Derby County
22nd · attack 0.98 · defence 1.13
Wrexham
14th · attack 1.09 · defence 1.19
Our model makes Derby County favourites for Derby County – Wrexham, at 42%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Derby County win 42% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Wrexham win 31%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.49 goals for Derby County and 1.24 for Wrexham, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time and both teams scoring 56%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.49 for Derby County, 1.24 for Wrexham.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Derby County wins; above it, Wrexham wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Derby County goals in rows, Wrexham goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Derby County v Wrexham?
Derby County, at 42%. The full split is Derby County 42%, draw 27%, Wrexham 31%.
What is the most likely score in Derby County v Wrexham?
1–1, which comes up in 12.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Derby County v Wrexham?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 77% of the time. Expected goals are 1.49 for Derby County and 1.24 for Wrexham.
Will both teams score in Derby County v Wrexham?
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. Derby County keep a clean sheet or Wrexham fail to score in the remaining 44%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.