Wednesday 14 October · 21:00 · 10th matchday
Lincoln City – West Ham United
Lincoln City
13th · attack 0.87 · defence 0.93
West Ham United
2nd · attack 1.65 · defence 1.11
Our model makes West Ham United favourites for Lincoln City – West Ham United, at 44%. Kick-off 14 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Lincoln City win 30% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and West Ham United win 44%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.23 goals for Lincoln City and 1.54 for West Ham United, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 56%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.23 for Lincoln City, 1.54 for West Ham United.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Lincoln City wins; above it, West Ham United wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Lincoln City goals in rows, West Ham United goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Lincoln City v West Ham United?
West Ham United, at 44%. The full split is Lincoln City 30%, draw 27%, West Ham United 44%.
What is the most likely score in Lincoln City v West Ham United?
1–1, which comes up in 12.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lincoln City v West Ham United?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 77% of the time. Expected goals are 1.23 for Lincoln City and 1.54 for West Ham United.
Will both teams score in Lincoln City v West Ham United?
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. Lincoln City keep a clean sheet or West Ham United fail to score in the remaining 44%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.