Saturday 17 October · 13:30 · 11th matchday
Middlesbrough – Cardiff City
Middlesbrough
3rd · attack 1.20 · defence 1.02
Cardiff City
21st · attack 0.91 · defence 1.26
Our model makes Middlesbrough favourites for Middlesbrough – Cardiff City, at 60%. Kick-off 17 October 2026, 13:30.
Across the full score distribution, Middlesbrough win 60% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Cardiff City win 17%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.93 goals for Middlesbrough and 0.92 for Cardiff City, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time and both teams scoring 52%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.93 for Middlesbrough, 0.92 for Cardiff City.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Middlesbrough wins; above it, Cardiff City wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Middlesbrough goals in rows, Cardiff City goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Middlesbrough v Cardiff City?
Middlesbrough, at 60%. The full split is Middlesbrough 60%, draw 23%, Cardiff City 17%.
What is the most likely score in Middlesbrough v Cardiff City?
1–1, which comes up in 11.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Middlesbrough v Cardiff City?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 79% of the time. Expected goals are 1.93 for Middlesbrough and 0.92 for Cardiff City.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough v Cardiff City?
Both teams score in 52% of simulations. Middlesbrough keep a clean sheet or Cardiff City fail to score in the remaining 48%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Saturday 10 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.