Saturday 10 October · 16:00 · 9th matchday
Middlesbrough – Wolverhampton Wanderers
Middlesbrough
3rd · attack 1.20 · defence 1.02
Wolverhampton Wanderers
5th · attack 1.36 · defence 1.08
Our model makes Middlesbrough favourites for Middlesbrough – Wolverhampton Wanderers, at 43%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Middlesbrough win 43% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Wolverhampton Wanderers win 31%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.65 goals for Middlesbrough and 1.39 for Wolverhampton Wanderers, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time and both teams scoring 61%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.65 for Middlesbrough, 1.39 for Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Middlesbrough wins; above it, Wolverhampton Wanderers wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Middlesbrough goals in rows, Wolverhampton Wanderers goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers?
Middlesbrough, at 43%. The full split is Middlesbrough 43%, draw 25%, Wolverhampton Wanderers 31%.
What is the most likely score in Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers?
1–1, which comes up in 11.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 81% of the time. Expected goals are 1.65 for Middlesbrough and 1.39 for Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers?
Both teams score in 61% of simulations. Middlesbrough keep a clean sheet or Wolverhampton Wanderers fail to score in the remaining 39%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.