Saturday 17 October · 13:30 · 11th matchday
Millwall – Lincoln City
Millwall
12th · attack 1.05 · defence 1.01
Lincoln City
13th · attack 0.87 · defence 0.93
Our model makes Millwall favourites for Millwall – Lincoln City, at 44%. Kick-off 17 October 2026, 13:30.
Across the full score distribution, Millwall win 44% of the time, the draw comes up 31% and Lincoln City win 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 14.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.26 goals for Millwall and 0.88 for Lincoln City, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 36% of the time and both teams scoring 43%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.26 for Millwall, 0.88 for Lincoln City.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Millwall wins; above it, Lincoln City wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Millwall goals in rows, Lincoln City goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Millwall v Lincoln City?
Millwall, at 44%. The full split is Millwall 44%, draw 31%, Lincoln City 25%.
What is the most likely score in Millwall v Lincoln City?
1–1, which comes up in 14.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Millwall v Lincoln City?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 36% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 64% of the time. Expected goals are 1.26 for Millwall and 0.88 for Lincoln City.
Will both teams score in Millwall v Lincoln City?
Both teams score in 43% of simulations. Millwall keep a clean sheet or Lincoln City fail to score in the remaining 57%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Saturday 10 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.