Tuesday 13 October · 20:45 · 10th matchday
Millwall – Swansea City
Millwall
12th · attack 1.05 · defence 1.01
Swansea City
1st · attack 1.03 · defence 1.03
Our model makes Millwall favourites for Millwall – Swansea City, at 44%. Kick-off 13 October 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Millwall win 44% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and Swansea City win 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.38 goals for Millwall and 1.04 for Swansea City, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 44% of the time and both teams scoring 49%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.38 for Millwall, 1.04 for Swansea City.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Millwall wins; above it, Swansea City wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Millwall goals in rows, Swansea City goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Millwall v Swansea City?
Millwall, at 44%. The full split is Millwall 44%, draw 29%, Swansea City 27%.
What is the most likely score in Millwall v Swansea City?
1–1, which comes up in 13.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Millwall v Swansea City?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 44% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 71% of the time. Expected goals are 1.38 for Millwall and 1.04 for Swansea City.
Will both teams score in Millwall v Swansea City?
Both teams score in 49% of simulations. Millwall keep a clean sheet or Swansea City fail to score in the remaining 51%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.