Wednesday 14 October · 20:45 · 10th matchday
Norwich City – Southampton
Norwich City
17th · attack 1.19 · defence 1.20
Southampton
4th · attack 1.45 · defence 1.04
Our model makes Southampton favourites for Norwich City – Southampton, at 41%. Kick-off 14 October 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Norwich City win 34% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Southampton win 41%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.58 goals for Norwich City and 1.75 for Southampton, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 65% of the time and both teams scoring 66%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.58 for Norwich City, 1.75 for Southampton.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Norwich City wins; above it, Southampton wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Norwich City goals in rows, Southampton goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Norwich City v Southampton?
Southampton, at 41%. The full split is Norwich City 34%, draw 24%, Southampton 41%.
What is the most likely score in Norwich City v Southampton?
1–1, which comes up in 10.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Norwich City v Southampton?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 65% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 85% of the time. Expected goals are 1.58 for Norwich City and 1.75 for Southampton.
Will both teams score in Norwich City v Southampton?
Both teams score in 66% of simulations. Norwich City keep a clean sheet or Southampton fail to score in the remaining 34%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.