Wednesday 14 October · 20:45 · 10th matchday
Portsmouth – Sheffield United
Portsmouth
19th · attack 0.93 · defence 1.22
Sheffield United
18th · attack 1.07 · defence 1.09
Our model makes Sheffield United favourites for Portsmouth – Sheffield United, at 36% — but only 0.2% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 14 October 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Portsmouth win 36% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Sheffield United win 36%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.30 goals for Portsmouth and 1.31 for Sheffield United, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time and both teams scoring 54%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.30 for Portsmouth, 1.31 for Sheffield United.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Portsmouth wins; above it, Sheffield United wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Portsmouth goals in rows, Sheffield United goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Portsmouth v Sheffield United?
Sheffield United, at 36%. The full split is Portsmouth 36%, draw 28%, Sheffield United 36%.
What is the most likely score in Portsmouth v Sheffield United?
1–1, which comes up in 13.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Portsmouth v Sheffield United?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 74% of the time. Expected goals are 1.30 for Portsmouth and 1.31 for Sheffield United.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth v Sheffield United?
Both teams score in 54% of simulations. Portsmouth keep a clean sheet or Sheffield United fail to score in the remaining 46%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.