Saturday 10 October · 16:00 · 9th matchday
Preston North End – Millwall
Preston North End
23rd · attack 0.90 · defence 1.25
Millwall
12th · attack 1.05 · defence 1.01
Our model makes Millwall favourites for Preston North End – Millwall, at 39%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Preston North End win 32% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and Millwall win 39%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.17 goals for Preston North End and 1.31 for Millwall, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.17 for Preston North End, 1.31 for Millwall.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Preston North End wins; above it, Millwall wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Preston North End goals in rows, Millwall goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Preston North End v Millwall?
Millwall, at 39%. The full split is Preston North End 32%, draw 29%, Millwall 39%.
What is the most likely score in Preston North End v Millwall?
1–1, which comes up in 13.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Preston North End v Millwall?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 72% of the time. Expected goals are 1.17 for Preston North End and 1.31 for Millwall.
Will both teams score in Preston North End v Millwall?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. Preston North End keep a clean sheet or Millwall fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.