Wednesday 14 October · 20:45 · 10th matchday
Queens Park Rangers – Derby County
Queens Park Rangers
7th · attack 0.98 · defence 1.20
Derby County
22nd · attack 0.98 · defence 1.13
Our model makes Queens Park Rangers favourites for Queens Park Rangers – Derby County, at 42%. Kick-off 14 October 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Queens Park Rangers win 42% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Derby County win 30%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.42 goals for Queens Park Rangers and 1.18 for Derby County, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time and both teams scoring 53%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.42 for Queens Park Rangers, 1.18 for Derby County.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Queens Park Rangers wins; above it, Derby County wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Queens Park Rangers goals in rows, Derby County goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Queens Park Rangers v Derby County?
Queens Park Rangers, at 42%. The full split is Queens Park Rangers 42%, draw 28%, Derby County 30%.
What is the most likely score in Queens Park Rangers v Derby County?
1–1, which comes up in 13.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Queens Park Rangers v Derby County?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 74% of the time. Expected goals are 1.42 for Queens Park Rangers and 1.18 for Derby County.
Will both teams score in Queens Park Rangers v Derby County?
Both teams score in 53% of simulations. Queens Park Rangers keep a clean sheet or Derby County fail to score in the remaining 47%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.