Saturday 10 October · 16:00 · 9th matchday
Sheffield United – Lincoln City
Sheffield United
18th · attack 1.07 · defence 1.09
Lincoln City
13th · attack 0.87 · defence 0.93
Our model makes Sheffield United favourites for Sheffield United – Lincoln City, at 43%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Sheffield United win 43% of the time, the draw comes up 30% and Lincoln City win 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 14.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.29 goals for Sheffield United and 0.95 for Lincoln City, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 39% of the time and both teams scoring 45%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.29 for Sheffield United, 0.95 for Lincoln City.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Sheffield United wins; above it, Lincoln City wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 14 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Sheffield United goals in rows, Lincoln City goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Sheffield United v Lincoln City?
Sheffield United, at 43%. The full split is Sheffield United 43%, draw 30%, Lincoln City 26%.
What is the most likely score in Sheffield United v Lincoln City?
1–1, which comes up in 14.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sheffield United v Lincoln City?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 39% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 66% of the time. Expected goals are 1.29 for Sheffield United and 0.95 for Lincoln City.
Will both teams score in Sheffield United v Lincoln City?
Both teams score in 45% of simulations. Sheffield United keep a clean sheet or Lincoln City fail to score in the remaining 55%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.