Sunday 11 October · 13:00 · 9th matchday
Southampton – Portsmouth
Southampton
4th · attack 1.45 · defence 1.04
Portsmouth
19th · attack 0.93 · defence 1.22
Our model makes Southampton favourites for Southampton – Portsmouth, at 66%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 13:00.
Across the full score distribution, Southampton win 66% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and Portsmouth win 14%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 10.1% of simulations.
We expect 2.27 goals for Southampton and 0.97 for Portsmouth, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 63% of the time and both teams scoring 56%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.27 for Southampton, 0.97 for Portsmouth.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Southampton wins; above it, Portsmouth wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Southampton goals in rows, Portsmouth goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Southampton v Portsmouth?
Southampton, at 66%. The full split is Southampton 66%, draw 20%, Portsmouth 14%.
What is the most likely score in Southampton v Portsmouth?
2–0, which comes up in 10.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Southampton v Portsmouth?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 63% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 84% of the time. Expected goals are 2.27 for Southampton and 0.97 for Portsmouth.
Will both teams score in Southampton v Portsmouth?
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. Southampton keep a clean sheet or Portsmouth fail to score in the remaining 44%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.