Tuesday 13 October · 21:00 · 10th matchday
Stoke City – Middlesbrough
Stoke City
8th · attack 0.93 · defence 1.13
Middlesbrough
3rd · attack 1.20 · defence 1.02
Our model makes Middlesbrough favourites for Stoke City – Middlesbrough, at 39%. Kick-off 13 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Stoke City win 32% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Middlesbrough win 39%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.21 goals for Stoke City and 1.35 for Middlesbrough, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 47% of the time and both teams scoring 53%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.21 for Stoke City, 1.35 for Middlesbrough.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Stoke City wins; above it, Middlesbrough wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Stoke City goals in rows, Middlesbrough goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Stoke City v Middlesbrough?
Middlesbrough, at 39%. The full split is Stoke City 32%, draw 28%, Middlesbrough 39%.
What is the most likely score in Stoke City v Middlesbrough?
1–1, which comes up in 13.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Stoke City v Middlesbrough?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 47% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 73% of the time. Expected goals are 1.21 for Stoke City and 1.35 for Middlesbrough.
Will both teams score in Stoke City v Middlesbrough?
Both teams score in 53% of simulations. Stoke City keep a clean sheet or Middlesbrough fail to score in the remaining 47%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.