Saturday 10 October · 13:30 · 9th matchday
Swansea City – Norwich City
Swansea City
1st · attack 1.03 · defence 1.03
Norwich City
17th · attack 1.19 · defence 1.20
Our model makes Swansea City favourites for Swansea City – Norwich City, at 45%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 13:30.
Across the full score distribution, Swansea City win 45% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Norwich City win 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.59 goals for Swansea City and 1.22 for Norwich City, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.59 for Swansea City, 1.22 for Norwich City.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Swansea City wins; above it, Norwich City wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Swansea City goals in rows, Norwich City goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Swansea City v Norwich City?
Swansea City, at 45%. The full split is Swansea City 45%, draw 26%, Norwich City 28%.
What is the most likely score in Swansea City v Norwich City?
1–1, which comes up in 12.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Swansea City v Norwich City?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.59 for Swansea City and 1.22 for Norwich City.
Will both teams score in Swansea City v Norwich City?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. Swansea City keep a clean sheet or Norwich City fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.