Saturday 10 October · 16:00 · 9th matchday
Watford – Burnley
Watford
20th · attack 0.86 · defence 1.16
Burnley
24th · attack 1.04 · defence 1.02
Our model makes Burnley favourites for Watford – Burnley, at 37% — but only 4.0% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Watford win 33% of the time, the draw comes up 30% and Burnley win 37%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 14.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.13 goals for Watford and 1.21 for Burnley, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 41% of the time and both teams scoring 48%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.13 for Watford, 1.21 for Burnley.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Watford wins; above it, Burnley wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Watford goals in rows, Burnley goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Watford v Burnley?
Burnley, at 37%. The full split is Watford 33%, draw 30%, Burnley 37%.
What is the most likely score in Watford v Burnley?
1–1, which comes up in 14.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Watford v Burnley?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 41% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 69% of the time. Expected goals are 1.13 for Watford and 1.21 for Burnley.
Will both teams score in Watford v Burnley?
Both teams score in 48% of simulations. Watford keep a clean sheet or Burnley fail to score in the remaining 52%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.