Saturday 17 October · 13:30 · 11th matchday
Watford – Charlton Athletic
Watford
20th · attack 0.86 · defence 1.16
Charlton Athletic
10th · attack 0.78 · defence 1.08
Our model makes Watford favourites for Watford – Charlton Athletic, at 42%. Kick-off 17 October 2026, 13:30.
Across the full score distribution, Watford win 42% of the time, the draw comes up 32% and Charlton Athletic win 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 14.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.19 goals for Watford and 0.91 for Charlton Athletic, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 35% of the time and both teams scoring 42%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.19 for Watford, 0.91 for Charlton Athletic.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Watford wins; above it, Charlton Athletic wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Watford goals in rows, Charlton Athletic goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Watford v Charlton Athletic?
Watford, at 42%. The full split is Watford 42%, draw 32%, Charlton Athletic 27%.
What is the most likely score in Watford v Charlton Athletic?
1–1, which comes up in 14.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Watford v Charlton Athletic?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 35% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 63% of the time. Expected goals are 1.19 for Watford and 0.91 for Charlton Athletic.
Will both teams score in Watford v Charlton Athletic?
Both teams score in 42% of simulations. Watford keep a clean sheet or Charlton Athletic fail to score in the remaining 58%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Saturday 10 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.