Saturday 10 October · 13:30 · 9th matchday
West Bromwich Albion – Birmingham City
West Bromwich Albion
6th · attack 0.91 · defence 0.99
Birmingham City
11th · attack 0.99 · defence 1.06
Our model makes West Bromwich Albion favourites for West Bromwich Albion – Birmingham City, at 41%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 13:30.
Across the full score distribution, West Bromwich Albion win 41% of the time, the draw comes up 31% and Birmingham City win 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 14.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.24 goals for West Bromwich Albion and 0.98 for Birmingham City, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 38% of the time and both teams scoring 45%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.24 for West Bromwich Albion, 0.98 for Birmingham City.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, West Bromwich Albion wins; above it, Birmingham City wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
West Bromwich Albion goals in rows, Birmingham City goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City?
West Bromwich Albion, at 41%. The full split is West Bromwich Albion 41%, draw 31%, Birmingham City 28%.
What is the most likely score in West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City?
1–1, which comes up in 14.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 38% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 66% of the time. Expected goals are 1.24 for West Bromwich Albion and 0.98 for Birmingham City.
Will both teams score in West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City?
Both teams score in 45% of simulations. West Bromwich Albion keep a clean sheet or Birmingham City fail to score in the remaining 55%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.