Tuesday 13 October · 20:45 · 10th matchday
Wolverhampton Wanderers – Bolton Wanderers
Wolverhampton Wanderers
5th · attack 1.36 · defence 1.08
Bolton Wanderers
15th · attack 1.02 · defence 1.30
Our model makes Wolverhampton Wanderers favourites for Wolverhampton Wanderers – Bolton Wanderers, at 63%. Kick-off 13 October 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Wolverhampton Wanderers win 63% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and Bolton Wanderers win 17%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.8% of simulations.
We expect 2.26 goals for Wolverhampton Wanderers and 1.09 for Bolton Wanderers, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 65% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.26 for Wolverhampton Wanderers, 1.09 for Bolton Wanderers.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Wolverhampton Wanderers wins; above it, Bolton Wanderers wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers goals in rows, Bolton Wanderers goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Wolverhampton Wanderers v Bolton Wanderers?
Wolverhampton Wanderers, at 63%. The full split is Wolverhampton Wanderers 63%, draw 20%, Bolton Wanderers 17%.
What is the most likely score in Wolverhampton Wanderers v Bolton Wanderers?
2–1, which comes up in 9.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Wolverhampton Wanderers v Bolton Wanderers?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 65% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 85% of the time. Expected goals are 2.26 for Wolverhampton Wanderers and 1.09 for Bolton Wanderers.
Will both teams score in Wolverhampton Wanderers v Bolton Wanderers?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Wolverhampton Wanderers keep a clean sheet or Bolton Wanderers fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.