Tuesday 13 October · 20:45 · 10th matchday
Wrexham – West Bromwich Albion
Wrexham
14th · attack 1.09 · defence 1.19
West Bromwich Albion
6th · attack 0.91 · defence 0.99
Our model makes Wrexham favourites for Wrexham – West Bromwich Albion, at 43%. Kick-off 13 October 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Wrexham win 43% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and West Bromwich Albion win 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.39 goals for Wrexham and 1.09 for West Bromwich Albion, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.39 for Wrexham, 1.09 for West Bromwich Albion.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Wrexham wins; above it, West Bromwich Albion wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Wrexham goals in rows, West Bromwich Albion goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Wrexham v West Bromwich Albion?
Wrexham, at 43%. The full split is Wrexham 43%, draw 29%, West Bromwich Albion 28%.
What is the most likely score in Wrexham v West Bromwich Albion?
1–1, which comes up in 13.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Wrexham v West Bromwich Albion?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 72% of the time. Expected goals are 1.39 for Wrexham and 1.09 for West Bromwich Albion.
Will both teams score in Wrexham v West Bromwich Albion?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. Wrexham keep a clean sheet or West Bromwich Albion fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.