Saturday 10 October · 14:45 · 10th matchday
Cracovia Kraków – Zagłębie Lubin
Cracovia Kraków
13th · attack 1.00 · defence 1.05
Zagłębie Lubin
7th · attack 0.96 · defence 1.09
Our model makes Cracovia Kraków favourites for Cracovia Kraków – Zagłębie Lubin, at 46%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 14:45.
Across the full score distribution, Cracovia Kraków win 46% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Zagłębie Lubin win 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.45 goals for Cracovia Kraków and 1.01 for Zagłębie Lubin, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.45 for Cracovia Kraków, 1.01 for Zagłębie Lubin.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Cracovia Kraków wins; above it, Zagłębie Lubin wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Cracovia Kraków goals in rows, Zagłębie Lubin goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Cracovia Kraków v Zagłębie Lubin?
Cracovia Kraków, at 46%. The full split is Cracovia Kraków 46%, draw 28%, Zagłębie Lubin 25%.
What is the most likely score in Cracovia Kraków v Zagłębie Lubin?
1–1, which comes up in 13.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Cracovia Kraków v Zagłębie Lubin?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 72% of the time. Expected goals are 1.45 for Cracovia Kraków and 1.01 for Zagłębie Lubin.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Kraków v Zagłębie Lubin?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Cracovia Kraków keep a clean sheet or Zagłębie Lubin fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.