Saturday 10 October · 20:15 · 10th matchday
Jagiellonia Białystok – Górnik Zabrze
Jagiellonia Białystok
10th · attack 1.21 · defence 1.10
Górnik Zabrze
1st · attack 1.07 · defence 0.99
Our model makes Jagiellonia Białystok favourites for Jagiellonia Białystok – Górnik Zabrze, at 46%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 20:15.
Across the full score distribution, Jagiellonia Białystok win 46% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Górnik Zabrze win 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.60 goals for Jagiellonia Białystok and 1.17 for Górnik Zabrze, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 56%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.60 for Jagiellonia Białystok, 1.17 for Górnik Zabrze.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Jagiellonia Białystok wins; above it, Górnik Zabrze wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Jagiellonia Białystok goals in rows, Górnik Zabrze goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Jagiellonia Białystok v Górnik Zabrze?
Jagiellonia Białystok, at 46%. The full split is Jagiellonia Białystok 46%, draw 27%, Górnik Zabrze 27%.
What is the most likely score in Jagiellonia Białystok v Górnik Zabrze?
1–1, which comes up in 12.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Jagiellonia Białystok v Górnik Zabrze?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 77% of the time. Expected goals are 1.60 for Jagiellonia Białystok and 1.17 for Górnik Zabrze.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia Białystok v Górnik Zabrze?
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. Jagiellonia Białystok keep a clean sheet or Górnik Zabrze fail to score in the remaining 44%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.