Monday 12 October · 20:30
Katowice – Wieczysta Kraków
Katowice
8th · attack 1.13 · defence 1.09
Wieczysta Kraków
16th · attack 0.90 · defence 1.38
Our model makes Katowice favourites for Katowice – Wieczysta Kraków, at 60%. Kick-off 12 October 2026, 20:30.
Across the full score distribution, Katowice win 60% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Wieczysta Kraków win 17%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.99 goals for Katowice and 0.98 for Wieczysta Kraków, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time and both teams scoring 55%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.99 for Katowice, 0.98 for Wieczysta Kraków.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Katowice wins; above it, Wieczysta Kraków wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Katowice goals in rows, Wieczysta Kraków goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Katowice v Wieczysta Kraków?
Katowice, at 60%. The full split is Katowice 60%, draw 23%, Wieczysta Kraków 17%.
What is the most likely score in Katowice v Wieczysta Kraków?
1–1, which comes up in 10.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Katowice v Wieczysta Kraków?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.99 for Katowice and 0.98 for Wieczysta Kraków.
Will both teams score in Katowice v Wieczysta Kraków?
Both teams score in 55% of simulations. Katowice keep a clean sheet or Wieczysta Kraków fail to score in the remaining 45%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.