Sunday 11 October · 20:15 · 10th matchday
Legia Warszawa – Wisła Kraków
Legia Warszawa
3rd · attack 1.19 · defence 0.95
Wisła Kraków
4th · attack 1.01 · defence 1.19
Our model makes Legia Warszawa favourites for Legia Warszawa – Wisła Kraków, at 58%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 20:15.
Across the full score distribution, Legia Warszawa win 58% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Wisła Kraków win 18%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.89 goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.96 for Wisła Kraków, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time and both teams scoring 53%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.89 for Legia Warszawa, 0.96 for Wisła Kraków.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Legia Warszawa wins; above it, Wisła Kraków wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Legia Warszawa goals in rows, Wisła Kraków goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Legia Warszawa v Wisła Kraków?
Legia Warszawa, at 58%. The full split is Legia Warszawa 58%, draw 24%, Wisła Kraków 18%.
What is the most likely score in Legia Warszawa v Wisła Kraków?
1–1, which comes up in 11.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Legia Warszawa v Wisła Kraków?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 79% of the time. Expected goals are 1.89 for Legia Warszawa and 0.96 for Wisła Kraków.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa v Wisła Kraków?
Both teams score in 53% of simulations. Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet or Wisła Kraków fail to score in the remaining 47%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.