Sunday 11 October · 14:45 · 10th matchday
Piast Gliwice – Widzew Lodz
Piast Gliwice
9th · attack 0.96 · defence 0.95
Widzew Lodz
12th · attack 0.96 · defence 1.09
Our model makes Piast Gliwice favourites for Piast Gliwice – Widzew Lodz, at 47%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 14:45.
Across the full score distribution, Piast Gliwice win 47% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and Widzew Lodz win 23%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.40 goals for Piast Gliwice and 0.91 for Widzew Lodz, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 41% of the time and both teams scoring 46%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.40 for Piast Gliwice, 0.91 for Widzew Lodz.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Piast Gliwice wins; above it, Widzew Lodz wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 14 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Piast Gliwice goals in rows, Widzew Lodz goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Piast Gliwice v Widzew Lodz?
Piast Gliwice, at 47%. The full split is Piast Gliwice 47%, draw 29%, Widzew Lodz 23%.
What is the most likely score in Piast Gliwice v Widzew Lodz?
1–1, which comes up in 13.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Piast Gliwice v Widzew Lodz?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 41% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 68% of the time. Expected goals are 1.40 for Piast Gliwice and 0.91 for Widzew Lodz.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice v Widzew Lodz?
Both teams score in 46% of simulations. Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet or Widzew Lodz fail to score in the remaining 54%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.