Sunday 11 October · 17:30 · 10th matchday
Pogoń Szczecin – Korona Kielce
Pogoń Szczecin
5th · attack 1.19 · defence 0.97
Korona Kielce
6th · attack 0.92 · defence 1.03
Our model makes Pogoń Szczecin favourites for Pogoń Szczecin – Korona Kielce, at 54%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 17:30.
Across the full score distribution, Pogoń Szczecin win 54% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Korona Kielce win 19%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.64 goals for Pogoń Szczecin and 0.89 for Korona Kielce, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time and both teams scoring 49%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.64 for Pogoń Szczecin, 0.89 for Korona Kielce.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Pogoń Szczecin wins; above it, Korona Kielce wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Pogoń Szczecin goals in rows, Korona Kielce goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Pogoń Szczecin v Korona Kielce?
Pogoń Szczecin, at 54%. The full split is Pogoń Szczecin 54%, draw 27%, Korona Kielce 19%.
What is the most likely score in Pogoń Szczecin v Korona Kielce?
1–1, which comes up in 12.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Pogoń Szczecin v Korona Kielce?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 73% of the time. Expected goals are 1.64 for Pogoń Szczecin and 0.89 for Korona Kielce.
Will both teams score in Pogoń Szczecin v Korona Kielce?
Both teams score in 49% of simulations. Pogoń Szczecin keep a clean sheet or Korona Kielce fail to score in the remaining 51%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.