Monday 12 October · 18:00 · 10th matchday
Radomiak Radom – Motor Lublin
Radomiak Radom
14th · attack 1.00 · defence 1.23
Motor Lublin
17th · attack 1.04 · defence 1.25
Our model makes Radomiak Radom favourites for Radomiak Radom – Motor Lublin, at 46%. Kick-off 12 October 2026, 18:00.
Across the full score distribution, Radomiak Radom win 46% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Motor Lublin win 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.68 goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.28 for Motor Lublin, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.68 for Radomiak Radom, 1.28 for Motor Lublin.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Radomiak Radom wins; above it, Motor Lublin wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Radomiak Radom goals in rows, Motor Lublin goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Radomiak Radom v Motor Lublin?
Radomiak Radom, at 46%. The full split is Radomiak Radom 46%, draw 26%, Motor Lublin 28%.
What is the most likely score in Radomiak Radom v Motor Lublin?
1–1, which comes up in 12.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Radomiak Radom v Motor Lublin?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.68 for Radomiak Radom and 1.28 for Motor Lublin.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom v Motor Lublin?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Radomiak Radom keep a clean sheet or Motor Lublin fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.