Saturday 10 October · 17:30 · 10th matchday
Śląsk Wrocław – Lech Poznań
Śląsk Wrocław
15th · attack 0.98 · defence 1.11
Lech Poznań
2nd · attack 1.31 · defence 0.89
Our model makes Lech Poznań favourites for Śląsk Wrocław – Lech Poznań, at 43%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 17:30.
Across the full score distribution, Śląsk Wrocław win 29% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Lech Poznań win 43%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.16 goals for Śląsk Wrocław and 1.45 for Lech Poznań, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time and both teams scoring 54%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.16 for Śląsk Wrocław, 1.45 for Lech Poznań.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Śląsk Wrocław wins; above it, Lech Poznań wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Śląsk Wrocław goals in rows, Lech Poznań goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Śląsk Wrocław v Lech Poznań?
Lech Poznań, at 43%. The full split is Śląsk Wrocław 29%, draw 28%, Lech Poznań 43%.
What is the most likely score in Śląsk Wrocław v Lech Poznań?
1–1, which comes up in 13.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Śląsk Wrocław v Lech Poznań?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 1.16 for Śląsk Wrocław and 1.45 for Lech Poznań.
Will both teams score in Śląsk Wrocław v Lech Poznań?
Both teams score in 54% of simulations. Śląsk Wrocław keep a clean sheet or Lech Poznań fail to score in the remaining 46%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.