Friday 16 October · 20:30 · 11th matchday
Widzew Lodz – Wisła Kraków
Widzew Lodz
12th · attack 0.96 · defence 1.09
Wisła Kraków
4th · attack 1.01 · defence 1.19
Our model makes Widzew Lodz favourites for Widzew Lodz – Wisła Kraków, at 46%. Kick-off 16 October 2026, 20:30.
Across the full score distribution, Widzew Lodz win 46% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Wisła Kraków win 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.52 goals for Widzew Lodz and 1.11 for Wisła Kraków, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time and both teams scoring 53%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.52 for Widzew Lodz, 1.11 for Wisła Kraków.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Widzew Lodz wins; above it, Wisła Kraków wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Widzew Lodz goals in rows, Wisła Kraków goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Widzew Lodz v Wisła Kraków?
Widzew Lodz, at 46%. The full split is Widzew Lodz 46%, draw 28%, Wisła Kraków 27%.
What is the most likely score in Widzew Lodz v Wisła Kraków?
1–1, which comes up in 13.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Widzew Lodz v Wisła Kraków?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 1.52 for Widzew Lodz and 1.11 for Wisła Kraków.
Will both teams score in Widzew Lodz v Wisła Kraków?
Both teams score in 53% of simulations. Widzew Lodz keep a clean sheet or Wisła Kraków fail to score in the remaining 47%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.