Friday 16 October · 18:00 · 11th matchday
Wieczysta Kraków – Raków Częstochowa
Wieczysta Kraków
16th · attack 0.90 · defence 1.38
Raków Częstochowa
18th · attack 1.20 · defence 0.91
Our model makes Raków Częstochowa favourites for Wieczysta Kraków – Raków Częstochowa, at 50%. Kick-off 16 October 2026, 18:00.
Across the full score distribution, Wieczysta Kraków win 24% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Raków Częstochowa win 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.09 goals for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.66 for Raków Częstochowa, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 55%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.09 for Wieczysta Kraków, 1.66 for Raków Częstochowa.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Wieczysta Kraków wins; above it, Raków Częstochowa wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Wieczysta Kraków goals in rows, Raków Częstochowa goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Wieczysta Kraków v Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa, at 50%. The full split is Wieczysta Kraków 24%, draw 26%, Raków Częstochowa 50%.
What is the most likely score in Wieczysta Kraków v Raków Częstochowa?
1–1, which comes up in 12.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Wieczysta Kraków v Raków Częstochowa?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 77% of the time. Expected goals are 1.09 for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.66 for Raków Częstochowa.
Will both teams score in Wieczysta Kraków v Raków Częstochowa?
Both teams score in 55% of simulations. Wieczysta Kraków keep a clean sheet or Raków Częstochowa fail to score in the remaining 45%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.