Saturday 17 October · 16:30 · 9th matchday
ADO Den Haag – PSV
ADO Den Haag
17th · attack 0.77 · defence 1.65
PSV
3rd · attack 2.14 · defence 1.00
Our model makes PSV favourites for ADO Den Haag – PSV, at 84%. Kick-off 17 October 2026, 16:30.
Across the full score distribution, ADO Den Haag win 6% of the time, the draw comes up 10% and PSV win 84%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–3, in 8.4% of simulations.
We expect 0.94 goals for ADO Den Haag and 3.53 for PSV, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 82% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.94 for ADO Den Haag, 3.53 for PSV.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, ADO Den Haag wins; above it, PSV wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
| 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
ADO Den Haag goals in rows, PSV goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in ADO Den Haag v PSV?
PSV, at 84%. The full split is ADO Den Haag 6%, draw 10%, PSV 84%.
What is the most likely score in ADO Den Haag v PSV?
0–3, which comes up in 8.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in ADO Den Haag v PSV?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 82% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 94% of the time. Expected goals are 0.94 for ADO Den Haag and 3.53 for PSV.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag v PSV?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. ADO Den Haag keep a clean sheet or PSV fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.