Saturday 10 October · 21:00 · 8th matchday
Ajax – NEC Nijmegen
Ajax
5th · attack 1.48 · defence 0.95
NEC Nijmegen
11th · attack 1.32 · defence 1.22
Our model makes Ajax favourites for Ajax – NEC Nijmegen, at 58%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Ajax win 58% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and NEC Nijmegen win 20%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.6% of simulations.
We expect 2.23 goals for Ajax and 1.26 for NEC Nijmegen, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 68% of the time and both teams scoring 65%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.23 for Ajax, 1.26 for NEC Nijmegen.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Ajax wins; above it, NEC Nijmegen wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Ajax goals in rows, NEC Nijmegen goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Ajax v NEC Nijmegen?
Ajax, at 58%. The full split is Ajax 58%, draw 22%, NEC Nijmegen 20%.
What is the most likely score in Ajax v NEC Nijmegen?
2–1, which comes up in 9.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Ajax v NEC Nijmegen?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 68% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 87% of the time. Expected goals are 2.23 for Ajax and 1.26 for NEC Nijmegen.
Will both teams score in Ajax v NEC Nijmegen?
Both teams score in 65% of simulations. Ajax keep a clean sheet or NEC Nijmegen fail to score in the remaining 35%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.